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30 Aug. Spanish La Liga---Alaves VS Atletico Madrid Prediction
Spanish La Liga - Alaves VS Atletico Madrid
Match Time:30-08-2025 23:00 Saturday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Alavés are hosting this La Liga Round 3 match at Estadio de Mendizorroza, sitting 10th with three points from two matches. They started the 2025/26 season with a 2-1 win over Levante, followed by a 1-0 loss at Real Betis, showing a solid defense (one goal conceded per game) but a modest attack (one goal per game). At home, Alavés are a tough nut to crack, unbeaten in their last three league games at Mendizorroza, including a 2-0 win over Atlético Madrid in April 2024. Their 4-2-3-1 setup, led by coach Eduardo Coudet, relies on Kike García’s finishing and Jon Guridi’s midfield presence (two goals in six games vs. Atlético). No major injuries are reported, so expect Carlos Benavídez and Luis Rioja to feature, with the home crowd pushing for an upset against a struggling opponent.
Atlético Madrid are in a rut, sitting 14th with one point from two matches after a 2-1 loss to Espanyol and a 1-1 draw with Elche. Their attack, led by Alexander Sørloth (13 goals in 19 La Liga matches in 2025), has been decent, but their defense has conceded 1.5 goals per game, a concern under Diego Simeone, who’s never started a season with three winless La Liga games. Away form is shaky, with just two wins in their last seven league road games, including losses at Alavés in their last two visits. Minor knocks to Nahuel Molina and Samuel Lino are manageable, but Atlético’s 37 crosses against Elche (highest since November 2023) suggest they’ll rely on aerial threats. Their 4-4-2 will aim to control possession and exploit set pieces, but defensive lapses could cost them.
Head to Head
Atlético Madrid lead the historical head-to-head with 16 wins to Alavés’s seven in 28 matches since 1954, with five draws, per the sports card above. However, Alavés have been a bogey team at home, winning their last three home games against Atlético (2-0 in April 2024, 1-0 in September 2021, 2-0 in December 2002), a streak that’s Diego Simeone’s joint-longest ongoing away losing run in La Liga. Recent matches average 1.95 goals, with both teams scoring in 40% of the last five (e.g., 2-1 Atlético win in November 2023). Alavés’s home dominance and Guridi’s scoring record against Atlético (two goals in six games) give them a psychological edge.
Prediction
Alavés’s strong home record against Atlético and the visitors’ winless start make this a tricky fixture for Simeone’s side. I predict a 1-0 win for Alavés, with Kike García or a set piece from Benavídez likely to decide it, while Atlético struggle to convert their crosses (projected 20-25, per Outlook India). Alavés’s win probability is around 66%, factoring in their home form and Atlético’s defensive issues (1.4 goals conceded per game, per BBC Sport). Expect a low-scoring, physical game with 8-10 corners and Alavés’s compact defense frustrating Atlético’s attack. Check the sports card above for detailed H2H stats, like Alavés’s 2-0 win in 1954.
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