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17th Sep. England League Cup---Swansea City VS Nottingham Forest Prediction
England League Cup - Swansea City VS Nottingham Forest
Match Time:18-09-2025 03:00 Thursday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Swansea City are entering this England League Cup (Carabao Cup) Third Round match at Swansea.com Stadium on September 17, 2025, in decent form, sitting 8th in the Championship with 7 points from five matches (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their recent form shows two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches across all competitions, including a 1-0 Championship win over Sheffield United and a 2-0 League Cup victory against Plymouth Argyle. They’ve scored six goals and conceded five in the Championship, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. At home, Swansea are resilient, with a six-game unbeaten run across all competitions, including a 3-1 League Cup win over Crawley Town. Coach Alan Sheehan’s 4-2-3-1 relies on Liam Cullen’s finishing and Ji-sung Eom’s pace. Injuries to Ricardo Santos (knee), Jay Fulton (groin), and Marko Stamenic (groin) are concerns, but goalkeeper Andy Fisher is set to start after playing the first two League Cup rounds. Swansea will leverage their home crowd to press high and challenge Nottingham Forest, aiming to reach the Fourth Round for the first time since 2017-18.
Nottingham Forest are struggling, sitting 17th in the Premier League with 2 points from four matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their recent form includes one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five, with a 1-1 Premier League draw against Crystal Palace but a 3-0 loss at Arsenal. They’ve scored three goals and conceded six, averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Away form is poor, with no wins in their last three road games, including a 1-0 loss to Brentford. Coach Ange Postecoglou’s 4-2-3-1 depends on James McAtee’s creativity and Arnaud Kalimuendo’s finishing. Injuries to Nicolas Dominguez (knee), Ola Aina (hamstring), and Murillo (doubtful, knock) weaken their squad. Forest, entering the competition in the Third Round, will need to stay compact and rely on counters to counter Swansea’s home intensity, aiming for their first League Cup win since 1990.
Head to Head
Nottingham Forest hold a slight historical edge over Swansea City, with 11 wins to Swansea’s 8 and 9 draws in 28 competitive meetings. Their most recent clash was a 5-1 Forest win on April 30, 2022, in the Championship at the City Ground, with Sam Surridge scoring a hat-trick. At Swansea.com Stadium, Swansea won 3-1 in a 2011 Championship play-off, but Forest won 2-1 in a 2019 Championship match. Matches average 2.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 46% of encounters, suggesting a potentially open game. Forest’s 5-1 thrashing gives them a psychological edge, but Swansea’s 5-1 FA Cup win over Forest in 2021 and their current home form make this a competitive South Wales derby.
Prediction
Swansea’s strong home form (six-game unbeaten run) and Forest’s poor away record (no wins in three) make this a close contest, but Swansea’s momentum gives them a slight edge. I predict a 2-1 win for Swansea, with Cullen or Eom likely scoring, while Kalimuendo or McAtee could reply for Forest on a counter. Swansea’s win probability is around 55%, reflecting their 3-1 Crawley win and Forest’s depleted squad. Expect Swansea to edge possession (around 52%) and corners (6-8 projected), with Forest’s counters posing a moderate threat. The game should see Swansea’s wingers exploit Forest’s injury-hit defense, building on their 2-0 Plymouth win, for a narrow victory to advance to the Fourth Round.
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