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24th Sep. Coppa Italia---Parma VS Spezia Prediciton

24th Sep. Coppa Italia---Parma VS Spezia Prediciton
Coppa Italia  -  Parma VS Spezia
Match Time:24-09-2025 23:00 Wednesday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips

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Team Reviews
Parma are entering this Coppa Italia Round of 32 match at Stadio Ennio Tardini on September 24, 2025, in a challenging position, sitting 19th in Serie A with 2 points from four matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their recent form shows one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five competitive matches, including a 2-0 Serie A loss at Cagliari and a 2-0 Coppa Italia win over Pescara on August 17, 2025. They’ve scored one goal and conceded four in Serie A, averaging 0.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. At home, Parma are winless in their last two league games, drawing 1-1 with Atalanta. Coach Carlos Cuesta’s 4-2-3-1 relies on Mateo Pellegrino’s finishing (two goals in the Pescara win) and Adrián Bernabé’s midfield creativity. Injuries to Mandela Keita (doubtful, thigh) and Alessandro Circati (hamstring) are concerns, but Enrico Del Prato is available. Parma will leverage their home crowd to press high and exploit Spezia’s defensive weaknesses, aiming to build on their cup momentum.

Spezia are struggling, sitting 18th in Serie B with 2 points from four matches (0 wins, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their recent form includes one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five, with a 3-1 Serie B loss to Juve Stabia and a 1-1 Coppa Italia win over Sampdoria (via penalties) on August 19, 2025. They’ve scored one goal and conceded five in Serie B, averaging 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. Away form is poor, with no wins in their last three road games, including a 1-1 draw at Empoli. Coach Luca D’Angelo’s 3-4-3 depends on Salvatore Esposito’s set pieces (one goal) and Edoardo Soleri’s finishing (one goal). Injuries to Ádám Nagy (muscle) and Aleš Matějů (doubtful, knock) weaken their squad. Spezia will aim to stay compact and counter Parma’s intensity, hoping to repeat their cup resilience.

Head to Head
Parma hold a slight edge, winning three of their six recent meetings with Spezia, with three draws. Their most recent clashes were in Serie B last season, with Parma winning both (2-0 home, 3-0 away). At Stadio Tardini, Parma won 2-0 on April 13, 2024, with goals from Pellegrino and Hernani. Matches average 2.0 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of encounters, suggesting a potentially tight game. Parma’s recent dominance (5-0 aggregate in last season’s meetings) gives them a psychological edge, but Spezia’s draw-heavy record against Parma and their penalty shootout win over Sampdoria show they can be resilient.

Prediction
Parma’s home advantage and recent cup success make them favorites against a Spezia side struggling in Serie B and depleted by injuries. I predict a 2-1 Parma win, with Pellegrino or Patrick Cutrone likely scoring, and Esposito possibly replying for Spezia via a set piece. Parma’s win probability is around 60%, reflecting their 2-0 Pescara win and Spezia’s 3-1 Juve Stabia loss. Expect Parma to edge possession (around 52%) and corners (6-8 projected), with Spezia’s counters posing a moderate threat. The game should see Parma’s wingers exploit Spezia’s flanks, building on their 2-0 April win, for a narrow victory to advance to the Round of 16.
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