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25th Sep. Coppa Italia---Genoa VS Empoli Prediction
Coppa Italia - Genoa VS Empoli
Match Time:26-09-2025 00:30 Friday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Genoa are entering this Coppa Italia Round of 32 match at Stadio Luigi Ferraris on September 25, 2025, in a tough spot, sitting 15th in Serie A with 4 points from four matches (1 win, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their recent form shows one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five competitive matches, including a 2-1 Serie A loss at Bologna and a 3-0 Coppa Italia win over Vicenza Virtus on August 17, 2025. They’ve scored three goals and conceded five in Serie A, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. At home, Genoa are winless in their last two league games, drawing 0-0 with Lecce and losing 0-1 to Juventus. Coach Patrick Vieira’s 4-3-3 relies on Lorenzo Colombo’s finishing (one goal) and Ruslan Malinovskyi’s creativity (one assist). Injuries to Jean Onana (thigh) and Maxwel Cornet (hamstring) are concerns, but Leo Østigård is available. Genoa will leverage their home crowd to press high and exploit Empoli’s defensive weaknesses, aiming to avoid a repeat of last season’s early cup exit to Sampdoria.
Empoli are struggling, sitting 11th in Serie B with 4 points from five matches (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses). Their recent form includes one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five, with a 1-1 Serie B draw against Spezia on September 14, 2025, and a 1-1 Coppa Italia win over Reggiana (via penalties) on August 19, 2025. They’ve scored six goals and conceded six in Serie B, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Away form is poor, with no wins in their last three road games, including a 4-0 loss at Pescara. Coach Guido Pagliuca’s 4-3-3 depends on Bogdan Popov’s finishing (four goals) and Franco Carboni’s wing play. Injuries to Marco Nasti (muscle), Nicolas Haas (long-term), Pietro Pellegri (knee), and Duccio Degli Innocenti (ankle) weaken their squad. Empoli will aim to stay compact and counter Genoa’s intensity, seeking to build on their semi-final run last season.
Head to Head
Genoa hold a strong edge, unbeaten in their last 11 meetings with Empoli (5 wins, 6 draws), including a 2-1 Serie A win on December 28, 2024 (Sebastiano Esposito and Caleb Ekuban scoring for Genoa, Milan Badelj for Empoli) and a 1-1 draw on February 24, 2025. At Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa are unbeaten in their last eight home games against Empoli (three wins, five draws), including a 2-0 win in 2023. Matches average 1.9 goals, with both teams scoring in 53% of encounters, suggesting a competitive but low-scoring game. Genoa’s historical dominance, especially at home, gives them a psychological advantage, though Empoli’s cup resilience (eliminating Juventus last season) keeps them in contention for an upset.
Prediction
Genoa’s home advantage and strong record against Empoli make them favorites, despite both teams’ inconsistent form. I predict a 2-1 Genoa win, with Colombo or Vitinha likely scoring, and Popov possibly replying for Empoli on a counter. Genoa’s win probability is around 60%, reflecting their 3-0 Vicenza win and Empoli’s 4-0 Pescara loss. Expect Genoa to edge possession (around 52%) and corners (6-8 projected), with Empoli’s counters posing a moderate threat due to their depleted squad. The game should see Genoa’s wingers exploit Empoli’s flanks, building on their 2-1 December win, for a narrow victory to advance to the Round of 16 against AC Milan.
From:Preview
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