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23rd Sep. England League Cup---Liverpool VS Southampton Prediction
England League Cup - Liverpool VS Southampton
Match Time:24-09-2025 03:00 Wednesday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
Liverpool are entering this EFL Cup (Carabao Cup) third-round match at Anfield on September 23, 2025, in top form, sitting 1st in the Premier League with 15 points from five matches (5 wins). Their recent form shows four wins and one draw in their last five matches across all competitions, including a 2-1 Premier League win over Everton and a dramatic 3-2 UEFA Champions League victory against Atlético Madrid on September 18, 2025, with goals from Mohamed Salah, Ryan Gravenberch, and Virgil van Dijk. They’ve scored 14 goals and conceded five in the Premier League, averaging 2.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. At home, Liverpool are formidable, winning their last three league games, including a 3-1 victory over Southampton on March 8, 2025. Coach Arne Slot’s 4-3-3 will see heavy rotation due to a packed schedule, with Giorgi Mamardashvili likely debuting in goal, and players like Joe Gomez, Wataru Endo, Curtis Jones, Federico Chiesa, and Rio Ngumoha starting. Injuries to Virgil van Dijk, Mohamed Salah, Ibrahima Konaté, Dominik Szoboszlai, and Ryan Gravenberch (rested) are concerns, but Alexander Isak and Andy Robertson are available. Liverpool will leverage their raucous Anfield crowd to press high and exploit Southampton’s defense, aiming to kick off their cup campaign strongly, as they did in last season’s 2-1 quarter-final win over Southampton.
Southampton are struggling, sitting 19th in the Championship with 4 points from six matches (1 win, 1 draw, 4 losses). Their recent form includes one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five, with a 3-1 loss at Hull City and a 3-0 EFL Cup second-round win over Norwich. They’ve scored four goals and conceded six in the Championship, averaging 0.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. Away form is poor, with no wins in their last three road games, including a 1-1 draw at Portsmouth. Coach Will Still’s 4-3-3 relies on Ryan Manning’s finishing (two cup goals) and Ryan Fraser’s assists (one). Injuries to Aaron Ramsdale (doubtful, knock) and Taylor Harwood-Bellis (suspended) weaken their squad. Southampton, who beat Northampton (1-0) and Norwich (3-0) to reach this stage, will aim to stay compact and counter Liverpool’s intensity, hoping to repeat their 2017 semi-final win at Anfield.
Head to Head
Liverpool dominate recent meetings, winning eight of their last nine against Southampton, including a 3-1 Premier League win on March 8, 2025 (Darwin Núñez and Salah scoring), a 2-1 Carabao Cup quarter-final win on December 18, 2024 (Núñez and Harvey Elliott scoring), and a 3-2 Premier League win on November 24, 2024. Their only non-victory was a 0-0 draw in May 2017. At Anfield, Liverpool have won their last eight home games against Southampton, scoring 25 goals and conceding two, though Southampton’s last win there was a 1-0 EFL Cup semi-final victory in 2017. Matches average 2.7 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of recent encounters, suggesting a competitive but Liverpool-leaning contest. The sports card above details their November 2024 clash (3-2 Liverpool win), highlighting Liverpool’s 62.1% possession and 27 shots.
Prediction
Liverpool’s home dominance, attacking depth, and historical edge make them clear favorites, even with rotation, against a Southampton side struggling in the Championship and winless at Anfield in eight visits. I predict a 3-1 Liverpool win, with Isak or Chiesa likely scoring, and Manning or Fraser possibly replying for Southampton on a counter. Liverpool’s win probability is around 70%, reflecting their 3-1 March win and Southampton’s 3-1 Hull loss. Expect Liverpool to dominate possession (around 60%) and corners (8-10 projected), with Southampton’s counters posing a limited threat due to their depleted squad. The game should see Liverpool’s rotated wingers exploit Southampton’s flanks, building on their 2-1 cup win last season, for a comfortable victory to advance.
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