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23rd Sep. Coppa Italia---AC Milan VS Lecce Prediction
Coppa Italia - AC Milan VS Lecce
Match Time:24-09-2025 03:00 Wednesday (GMT+8)
Football Livescore | Match Prediction & Tips
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Team Reviews
AC Milan are entering this Coppa Italia Round of 32 match at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) on September 23, 2025, in strong form, sitting 3rd in Serie A with 9 points from four matches (3 wins, 1 loss). Their recent form shows four wins and one loss in their last five competitive matches, including a 3-0 Serie A victory over Udinese, with goals from Christian Pulišić (40', 53') and Youssouf Fofana (46'), and a 2-0 Coppa Italia win over Bari on August 17, 2025. They’ve scored eight goals and conceded two in Serie A, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per game. At home, Milan are formidable, winning their last two league games, though they lost 2-1 to Cremonese in their opener. Coach Massimiliano Allegri (suspended, assistant likely on the touchline) employs a 4-2-3-1, relying on Pulišić’s flair (three goals, one assist) and Youssouf Fofana’s midfield energy. Injuries to Lorenzo Torriani, Mike Maignan, Ardon Jashari, and Rafael Leão are significant, but Luka Modrić and Adrien Rabiot are available. Milan will leverage their passionate San Siro crowd to press high and exploit Lecce’s defensive struggles, aiming to progress as they did in last year’s Coppa Italia final.
Lecce are in a dire state, sitting bottom of Serie A with 1 point from four matches (0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses). Their recent form includes one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five, with a 2-0 Coppa Italia win over Juve Stabia but a 1-2 league loss to Cagliari. They’ve scored two goals and conceded eight in Serie A, averaging 0.5 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game. Away form is poor, with no wins in their last four road games, including a 2-0 loss at Milan on August 29, 2025. Coach Eusebio Di Francesco’s 4-3-3 relies on Tete Morente’s finishing (one goal) and Lameck Banda’s pace. Injuries to Balthazar Pierret, Gaby Jean, and Filip Marchwinski weaken their squad. Lecce will aim to stay compact and counter Milan’s intensity, hoping to repeat their 2006 upset (1-0 at Via del Mare).
Head to Head
Milan dominate this fixture, unbeaten in their last 13 meetings with Lecce (9 wins, 4 draws), including a 2-0 away win on August 29, 2025, and back-to-back 3-0 home wins in 2024. At San Siro, Milan have won their last three home games against Lecce, scoring eight goals without conceding. The sports card above notes Milan’s 17.1% conversion rate against Lecce all-time in Serie A, with 23 goals scored and nine conceded in nine matches. Matches average 3.48 goals, with both teams scoring in 37% of encounters, suggesting a potentially one-sided game. Milan’s recent clean-sheet run (three straight in head-to-heads) gives them a psychological edge, but Lecce’s Coppa Italia win over Juve Stabia shows some resilience.
Prediction
Milan’s superior form, home dominance, and historical edge make them clear favorites against a Lecce side struggling defensively and winless in Serie A. I predict a 3-0 Milan win, with Pulišić or Álvaro Morata likely scoring, and Lecce unlikely to breach Milan’s defense given their goal drought. Milan’s win probability is around 75%, reflecting their 3-0 Udinese win and Lecce’s 1-2 Cagliari loss. Expect Milan to dominate possession (around 62%, as per their 62.3% vs. Lecce historically) and corners (8-10 projected). Lecce’s counters pose a minimal threat due to their depleted squad and Milan’s defensive record (three clean sheets in five games). The game should see Milan’s wingers exploit Lecce’s flanks, building on their 2-0 August win, for a comfortable victory to advance to the Round of 16 against Lazio.
From:Preview
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